Economic impact of the rentroduction of the New World Screwworm in Mexico, 2024

Abstract

The Mexican cattle industry faces ongoing animal health challenges that threaten its competitiveness and national food security. This study evaluated the economic impact of the re-emergence of the New World screwworm in Mexican cattle industry during 2024. Using a nonlinear programming model in GAMS/MINOS, net social surplus was optimized by integrating eight supply regions, eight demand regions, and two import nodes. The results showed that, in the absence of the pest, optimal national production exceeded the level observed in 2024 by 1.61 %, with a 0.4 % increase in net social value. In contrast, the reintroduction of the parasite and the consequent closure of the US border reduced national production and social welfare by 4 % and 1.32 %, respectively. Meat imports increased by 32.69 %, raising average supply and demand prices by more than 8 %. It is concluded that the pest represents a critical risk to sector stability, highlighting the need for sanitary policies and support measures to mitigate losses in aggregate social welfare.